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How are Runs Really Created
August 12, 2002 - John Warren
Great work, lots of stuff to think about in there. One thing I'm wondering about - looking at the relative marginal values of SB and CS, should this change our thinking as to what the appropriate individual success rate should be to justify an attempted steal? Taking it a bit further, since each individual pitcher creates such a different expected runs environment, do these averages go so far as to say that every runner that gets on should attempt to steal against Pedro, and that under no circumstances should even Ichiro attempt to steal against Chan Ho (laying aside for the moment Pudge's arm)? Thanks in advance for your thoughts on this, folks.
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